Area-level unemployment and perceived job insecurity: evidence from a longitudinal survey conducted in the Australian working-age population.

UNLABELLED RESEARCH SIGNIFICANCE: Job insecurity, the subjective individual anticipation of involuntary job loss, negatively affects employees' health and their engagement. Although the relationship between job insecurity and health has been extensively studied, job insecurity as an 'exposure' has received far less attention, with little known about the upstream determinants of job insecurity in particular. This research sought to identify the relationship between self-rated job insecurity and area-level unemployment using a longitudinal, nationally representative study of Australian households. METHODS Mixed-effect multi-level regression models were used to assess the relationship between area-based unemployment rates and self-reported job insecurity using data from a longitudinal, nationally representative survey running since 2001. Interaction terms were included to test the hypotheses that the relationship between area-level unemployment and job insecurity differed between occupational skill-level groups and by employment arrangement. Marginal effects were computed to visually depict differences in job insecurity across areas with different levels of unemployment. RESULTS Results indicated that areas with the lowest unemployment rates had significantly lower job insecurity (predicted value 2.74; 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.71-2.78, P < 0.001) than areas with higher unemployment (predicted value 2.81; 95% CI 2.79-2.84, P < 0.001). There was a stronger relationship between area-level unemployment and job insecurity among precariously and fixed-term employed workers than permanent workers. CONCLUSION These findings demonstrate the independent influences of prevailing economic conditions, individual- and job-level factors on job insecurity. Persons working on a casual basis or on a fixed-term contract in areas with higher levels of unemployment are more susceptible to feelings of job insecurity than those working permanently.